The Sky is not Falling.

The impact of a Trump administration on Canada - a commentary by historian Conrad Black.

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By Conrad Black

Apart from the crescendo of insane and unfounded billingsgate that Trump-hating Canadian commentators have hurled at President and President-elect Trump, some more legitimate concerns have been raised by people with authentic fears that his second administration could be in several respects harmful to Canada.

But first, let’s deal with the highlights of the fantastic and representative nonsense in Andrew Coyne’s November 6th column in the Globe and Mail. He accused Trump of being a “gangster” who had conducted a “hate-filled campaign” of “ludicrously unworkable anti-policies”, who was “out on bail in four jurisdictions”, a “convicted fraud artist,” an “adjudicated rapist and serial sexual predator,” a “habitual bankrupt,” “stooge of Vladimir Putin,” “the man who tried to overturn the last election.” He called him a “Nero” who sounds the death knell of NATO, will abandon Ukraine, and will deprive the American public that has just elected him of its constitutional liberties. Putting so many Brobdingnagian, malicious falsehoods in so condensed words as Andrew did in that column is challenging.

Trump has never been convicted of anything except the spurious finding, which had zero chance of survival of appeal, rendered by a notorious political hack of the New York Democratic machine, who found him guilty of exaggerating the value of collateral he advanced for loans that we understand were completely repaid and in respect of which his lenders testified in his favour.

The charges against him have been judged explicitly by the majority of Americans to be the product of the perversion of the criminal justice system for partisan political purposes by his enemies. They are the “gangsters”, which is the nation's judgement. Trump has never been personally bankrupt and has indeed made a fortune as a quality builder and promoter of his brands. He is an impresario and an immensely successful television personality, watched by millions of viewers across America for 14 years. The bankruptcies referred to were casinos financed by high-yield junk bonds, where it was understood in advance that there was a large chance the enterprises would become insolvent. The owners would have to trade equity to reduce interest on debt. This is routine; it is what occurred, and nobody lost anything due to it. If Andrew were economically literate, he would not raise such nonsense.

Trump has been the principal victim of an assault on his constitutional rights among all Americans over the last several decades. He will do nothing except reinforce those constitutional liberties that his opponents have so shabbily violated in his case. The comparison with Nero was too absurd to merit a response.

Far from being a stooge of Putin, Trump armed the Ukrainians with Javelin antitank missiles and sandbagged Putin’s effort to turn Germany into an energy vassal through the Nordstream Pipeline. Kicking the slackers and NATO out of ”the alliance of the willing”—those who graciously accept an American military guarantee but will not contribute seriously—and turning it into a real alliance where everyone pays their way is the reinforcement and not the destruction of that alliance. Trump has already said that he will not accept Putin’s conditions for peace in Ukraine and will instead assist Ukraine in doing better than what the Russian leader offers. And he has promised to bring peace quickly by threatening Putin with a massive escalation of Ukraine’s ability to return fire against the civilian population of Russia.

We have seen in the more than ten million more votes cast in 2020 than in 2024—the proportions of what many Americans believe to be the Democrats’ stuffing of unverified harvested ballots into Zuckerboxes in the middle of the night after election day, to deprive Trump of victory in 2020.

Trump’s impact on Canada

The economic arguments surrounding the Trump presidency’s threats to Canada raised by others are more substantial. It is widely feared in this country that Trump will increase American oil and gas production, insist that Canada increase its NATO military contribution to the two per cent of GDP that it has promised, cut a deal in Ukraine, impose new tariffs on Canadian exports, restrict immigration to the U.S. from Canada, renegotiate the U.S.-Canada-Mexico agreement, reduce financial support for electric vehicles, and hurt the future of NATO.

Trump will increase U.S. oil and gas production and relaunch the Keystone XL pipeline—a boon to Canada. He will encourage Canada to join the U.S. in taking foreign markets away from hostile countries like Iran and Venezuela. He will support that policy with American sanctions rigorously enforced to benefit the United States and Canada. Yes, he will insist on an increase in our NATO contribution, but that is what we should do instead of freeloading. Not to mention, Justin Trudeau has already promised to do it. This is also the most stimulative form of public sector spending, especially in high-tech areas. The armed forces are the foremost source of adult education in all advanced countries; we should thank Trump for this.

The deal he cuts in Ukraine will accept most, but not all, of Russia’s gains from that country since it has some historic rights in Ukraine, and it has proved impossible to dislodge the Russians altogether from their invasion. But he will also require an absolute, unconditional Russian and NATO guarantee of Ukraine’s new frontiers, translate military into economic assistance, and help fast-track a secure Ukraine into NATO and  EU membership. He will then offer Russia a nonaggression agreement with NATO and start, without any departure from the strategic interests of the Western alliance, to extract Russia from the arms of China, where its durable attachment could ultimately be a menace to Western security.

Trump does intend to adjust tariffs with Canada slightly but not necessarily unilaterally and not significantly beyond what Canada can easily compensate for with a currency adjustment. He thinks our trade negotiators are better than the United States but has no grievance against this country, which he has always liked and enjoyed. Mexico, especially given its promotion of the narcotics importing and slaving gangs, is another matter; his righteousness here is not unfounded and is no concern of ours.

He will not do anything to restrict authentic immigration from Canada to the U.S. Finally, of course, he will stop assistance to electric vehicles. He will do us the huge favour of discouraging the continued self-impoverishment of our self-imposed green terror.

Most importantly, President Trump’s tax cuts, deregulation, and renegotiated trade with other countries will generate a gigantic engine of increasing prosperity in America. Given that half of our GDP is tied up with the United States, we cannot fail to benefit from that.

Canada will come to like Trump, as Reagan did. The Canadian Trump-haters may bay at the harvest moon now, but we will hear no more of them after about six months. The silence will be golden.

Conrad Black