The Myth of the Rational Voter: A Canadian Election Prediction

Poilievre Will Get a Minority

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In the final days before Canada’s 2025 federal election, something curious begins to unfold. Otherwise lucid Canadians begin speaking of “momentum” with the solemnity of Newtonian law, as if political shifts followed trajectories no less inviolable than planetary motion. A party on the rise shall rise forever, we are told. One that slips shall spiral into oblivion. This is the season where numeracy masquerades as pro…