Our gross national debt - federal and provincial - should be investigated by Child, Family and Protective Services.

Have the last person to leave pick up the bill is no way to run a country. Math is cruel. We aren't as bad as the US - but we used that excuse on health care. CAD isn't a reserve currency either.

If you give even half a damn about free speech, subscribe. It means I can continue doing this without needing to ask a gender-neutral AI for spare change. I’m a suspended university professor, not a pundit barking from the cheap seats. The link is below, click it before the lawyers take it away.

Please subscribe to get at least three uncensored, impolite, fire-in-the-belly essays per week. Open comments, $6/month. Less than \ $4. Everyone says, “That’s just a cup of coffee.”

Well, then order mine.

The Bond Market Cometh: Canada’s Fiscal Reckoning

It’s 2035. All spending and revenues for both provincial and federal governments have continued at a pace equal to that of the last 10 years’ average (2015-2025), matching inflation, interest rates, and population growth.

Picture the morning after a decade-long bender. The bottle’s dry, the tab’s obscene, and the children wail next door.

Welcome to Canada’s fiscal reckoning—a self-inflicted wound we’ve nursed with the enthusiasm of a masochist at a whip convention. We didn’t just borrow; we pillaged the future, and now the bill’s due. This isn’t prophecy; it’s arithmetic. And arithmetic, unlike our leaders, doesn’t lie.

The Numbers: A Decade of Delusion, Projected Forward

Let’s start with the grim baseline. We’ve modelled Canada’s fiscal trajectory using the averages from the past ten years (2015–2025): inflation at 2.3%, interest rates at 2.6%, nominal GDP growth at 2.7%, and population growth at 1.1%. These aren’t apocalyptic figures; they’re the kind of polite optimism you’d expect from a bureaucrat dodging a performance review. Yet, even with this rose-tinted lens, the numbers scream like a banshee in a library.

Canada’s economy, projected forward to 2035, assuming federal and provincial debt, spending, tax revenues, and population growth continue at their 2015–2025 averages. Data is drawn from Statistics Canada, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, and the Fraser Institute, with projections calculated using compound growth rates. All figures are in 2025 CAD, inflation-adjusted unless stated.

Sources: Statistics Canada (2023), Fraser Institute (2025), author’s projections. CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate.