Looking great for Canada

Not Really. Reposted - March 1, by Andrew Coyne, Globe & Mail.

The growth crisis deepens. The latest figures from Statistics Canada confirm that Canada suffered another decline in per capita GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023: the fifth decline in the past six quarters, the worst sustained drop in more than 30 years. After adjusting for inflation, per capita GDP is below where it was nine years ago in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Most news reports focused on the fact that the GDP itself (i.e. total output, not per capita) did not drop but eked out a 0.2-per-cent gain after the third quarter’s small decline – meaning Canada “dodged a recession.” However, the problem with Canada’s economy is not cyclical but secular; it is not one of utilization but capacity. It is not so much that growth is temporarily below potential as that potential growth has slowed to a crawl.

Nor is this a short-run problem. It has been going on for decades. After inflation in the 1950s and 60s, Canada’s economy grew at more than 5 per cent annually by the 1970s, that had slowed…